Population Factors Effective in Reducing Total Fertility Rate in Iran, 1986-1996 and 1996-2006 Decad

Considering the importance of the trend of changes in total fertility rate in demographic researches on one hand, and the significant changes in fertility in Iran during 1986-1996 and 1996-2006 decades on the other hand, the present paper has studied population factors effective in decreasing total fertility rate in Iran during the 1986-1996 and 1996-2006 decades.

There is wide usage of total fertility rate (TFR) in demographic studies, particularly in population forecasts and compiling fertility hypotheses. Among questions, which any demographer faces in preparing and compiling fertility hypotheses, are the questions that, by which factors the changes in TFR are affected? And how is it possible to identify these factors?

The total fertility rate, is the sum of age specific fertility rate multiplied by 5 (provided that the rates are for 5 years age group).

As the age specific fertility rates are decomposed into age composition of women and the level of fertility among married women, changes in total fertility rate could be decomposed into these two factors, and measure the changes in these two factors.

 Now, the question is that, how much has been the share of each factor in decreasing the total fertility rate in Iran during 1986-2006 decade? Giving an answer to this question is the major objective of the present paper. In order to reach such an objective, the Total Fertility Rate Standardization Method has been used. This method is based upon the hypothesis that, the births number decrease in communities having high levels of fertility, starts with changes in cultural, population, and social specifications and features of these communities. That is, changes in cultural, population, and social specifications and features of the communities, might have a significant influence on the age in which women enter marriage life. Because, changes in the attitude of people’s of the community on the age of marriage and establishing a marriage life will have an effect on fertility rate.

Therefore, this paper has tried to study the TFR changes within two 10 year periods, that is, 1986-1996 and 1996-2006, by utilizing the statistics and figures of  National Census of Population and Housing in 1986 ,the results of fertility- mortality survey in 1996 and Census of Population and Housing in 2006, all prepared and compiled by the Statistical Center of Iran. This study has been carried out and calculated for the whole country and separately for urban and rural areas.

The result obtained from standardizing total fertility rate shows the role of postnuptial factors (fertility level of married women) in lowering the fertility, has been more than prenuptial factors (age composition on women), and the case has been more severe during the second 10 year period than the first 10 year period.

Among factors effective in lowering country’s fertility level in 1986-2006

decades  implementation of family adjustment policies of the government, increase in level of education and literacy in the country, particularly among women, higher marriage age, development of living in cities, economic shock and increase in lie expenses due to economic inflation, and finally, the attitude of the people of the community on decreasing the number of children and giving importance to the quality of children training during recent years, could be mentioned.

این مقاله در دومین کنفرانس جمعیتی آسیا که در بانکوک در تاریخ ۵ تا ۸ شهریورماه سال ۱۳۹۱برگزار شد به صورت پوستر ارائه شد.